Grand National Runners 2012

Updated, please see our Grand National Runners 2012 Page

Grand National 2010 Runners

Often argued as the world’s most famous steeplechase, the Grand National is the ultimate test of jumping and stamina. Thirty tricky fences combined with a 4m 4f marathon trip, means that the winner must be tuned up and ready to race on the big day. Split second misjudgements can be the difference between success and failure, so arguably there is some luck involved.

However, as a betting race, the Grand National brings a whole nation together. Gamblers and non gamblers alike all pick their horse and sit down to watch this exciting race. To try and help you find the winner, here is a preview of the main contenders and a breakdown of the stats.

Let’s start our preview by looking at recent Grand National Tips 2010

Grand National Trends 10

One stat that stands out is horses rarely carry more than 11 stone to victory. If we rule out all those carrying more than 11 st 2 lb (allowing for slight deviation) we can eliminate:

Cloudy Lane
Chelsea Harbour
Snowy Morning
Knowhere
Comply or Die
Ollie Magern
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
Priest’s Leap
My Will
Eurotrek

Younger horses tend to struggle in the National, so we can eliminate those aged 7 or less. This eliminates:

Big Fella Thanks
Can’t Buy Time

Interestingly every winner but 1 has run more than 4 times in the season in the last 21 years. This can rule out:

State of Play
Silver Birch
Offshore Account
Parsons Legacy
Reveillez
Golden Flight
Darkness
Arteea
Cerium
Kelami
Zabenz
Maljimar (May not get in to race)

That rules out 25 of the possible 41 runners, and after analysing the form, I have narrowed the field down to a shortlist of 7.

Grand National Form 10

Butlers Cabin

The likely ride of Tony McCoy and one of the shorter priced horses in the race. He is one of the dourest stayers in racing right now and has to be respected. He was unlucky in last year’s National when falling at Bechers Brook and comes here off a lower handicap mark. He has had 4 runs to get him ready for this race; all of them over trip’s too short for the horse. This horse stays, can jump and goes for the Champion Jockey. Fancied horses do well in the race. Live claims. 10/1

Cornish Sett

Trained by Paul Nicholls who trains the favourite, and is one of my outsiders for this race. He was a disappointing 12th in last year’s National, but comes into this race in much better form than last year. After falling on his seasonal bow, his form reads 1-2-8, and he has shown he is looking for a step up in trip when he was a staying on 2nd in the Welsh National over 3m 3f. Completed the National course before so we can trust his jumping. 33/1

Irish Invader

One thing to note is the excellent record the Irish have in this race and that counts in Irish Invader’s favour. Willie Mullins has taken this horse down in trip and back to basics in an attempt to improve his jumping. He has taken to it like a fish to water and has hacked up on his last 4 starts. Can he repeat it over 4m 4f at Aintree with these fences? 25/1

Kilbeggan Blade

One of the most consistent horses in training. He has already registered 3 victories and a 2nd this season, one coming over 3m 5f at Sandown showing he is a stayer. Never run at Aintree before, but goes best when stamina is really tested and has to be respected. 22/1

Brooklyn Brownie

Another consistent stayer for Malcolm Jefferson and he also has the added bonus of having form over the National fences. He enjoys firmer ground which is another positive given the likely conditions and if he improves on his jumping, 33/1 could look a big price. 33/1

Himalayan Trail

Trained by John Joseph Mangam, who trained Monty’s Pass to win this race in 02’. When you initially look at the form figures, you would instantly discount him but when you look back to his form in Britain, he has to be respected. A win in the Midlands National over 4m 1f on his last run for Sue Smith’s stable shows he stays and he took to the fences well in the Becher Chase. Can’t be ignored. 33/1

Golden Flight – This is the final horse I want to throw into the mix to defy all the stats. Golden Flight was bought specifically for this race and has had 1 run to get him ready at the Cheltenham Festival. He was clearly in need of that run and stayed on one paced over a trip far too short. That race will have put him spot on for this, and I expect him to upset the trends. 66/1

Conclusion:

With the prices in the National, you can get off with selecting 5 or 6 against the field as long as you include some outsiders.

2 pts win Butlers Cabin @ 10/1 Bet365
1 pt ew Cornish Sett @ 33/1 Totesport
1 pt ew Kilbeggan Blade @ 22/1 Totesport
1 pt ew Brooklyn Brownie @ 33/1 Bet 365
0.5 pt ew Irish Invader @ 25/1 William Hill
0.5 pt ew Himalayan Trail @ 33/1 Bet 365
0.5 pt ew Golden Flight @ 66/1 Bet 365

Total Staked: 11 pts

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Grand National 09 Favourite Watch – My Will

The current ante post favourite for the race and it isn’t difficult to see why. Trained by current Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh, this horse looks to have the class form in the book to take this National. He came back this season after an 18 month absence and ran with credit in the Hennessey at Newbury. He then followed up with a very creditable run in the Gold Cup. He was always going to face an impossible task against the likes of Kauto Star and Denman, but he stayed on again after being outpaced to take 5th @ 100/1. That run catapulted him to the head of the Grand National market and he has been there since. He has shown in the past he relishes a test of stamina and his record when going further than 3 miles reads 3-F-3-1-12-3-5-5. These figures are made even more impressive when excuses can be made for his poor runs. 2 (5th and 12th) were in Gold Cup’s and 1 run (5th) was after an 18 month absence. That leaves a record of 3-F-3-1-3 when going further than 3 miles.

His jumping is solid and he has strong claims here. The worries are the weight and the lack of runs.
Stewart Davidson

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