Grand National..William Hill Worried By My Will!
Grand National favourite ‘My Will’ could wipe out Britain’s bookies this weekend with victory in the famous handicap, as punters across the land began backing the runner ahead of Saturdays big race. William Hill estimate that over half of punters betting on the Grand National base their selections on runners names and fear the popular Christian name could lead to a multi million pound bookie bashing! Records suggest that in excess of 500,000 people in the UK hold the first name William, while nearly 300,000 have the surname Williams. To make matters worse 7/1 favourite My Will is piloted by punters favourite Ruby Walsh, trained by the number one, Paul Nicholls and has Royal connections.
‘We think that My Will will be the best backed Grand Nation horse of the Millennium. Everyone knows someone with the name Will, add to that Will’s tend to bet with William Hill! The Industry could be looking at a £100 Million payout,” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams
*William Hill’s worst ‘name’ loss was in 1999 Bobbyjo cost the bookies bundles when backed into 10/1 before romping home in the Grand National.
John Smiths Grand National (William Hill Bet): 7-1 My Will, 10-1 Butlers Cabin, Rambling Minster, 14-1 Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, State Of Play, 16-1 Black Apalachi, 20-1 Comply Or Die, 22-1 Big Fella Thanks, Darkness, Kilbeggan Blade, LAmi, 25-1 Irish Invader, Southern Vic, 33-1 Brooklyn Brownie, Cornish Sett, Himalayan Trail, Offshore Account, Snowy Morning, 40-1 Cloudy Lane, 50-1 Battlecry, Cant Buy Time, Silver Birch, 66-1 Chelsea Harbour, Golden Flight, Idle Talk, Knowhere, Mon Mome, Preists Leap, 100-1 Eurotrek, Fleet Street, Musica Bella, Ollie Magern, Reveillez, Stan, Zabenz, 150-1 Fundamentalist, Kelami, 200-1 Arteea, 500-1 Cerium, (reserves 33-1 Maljimar, 66-1 Companero, 66-1 Patsy Hall, 100-1 Iron Man) EW 1-2-3-4
Bookies In Fear Of AIR FORCE ONE GAMBLE! Will Barack Bet!
WITH BARACK OBAMA arriving in England on board the Presidential plane, Air Force One, bookmakers William Hill are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on a horse of that name winning the biggest race of the day at the Grand National meeting in Liverpool. Hills have already been forced to cut the odds about Air Force One winning from 25/1 to 16/1 after punters noticed the huge coincidence of the horse running at the same time as Obama is in the country. Hills are 100/1 that Obama pops into William Hill for a bet on the horse!
“Despite a vast amount of available information and millions of ‘professional tipsters’ we still find over half of our punters have a bet on word association and you can be sure that Air Force One will attract a huge following for the Bowl at Aintree,” said Hill’s spokesman Kate Miller. ‘Add to that President Obama has a ‘Midas’ touch and punters will be hoping that some of his luck rubs off on them.”
Grand National ‘WILL’ To Cost Bookies £100 MILLION POUND PAYOUT?
Grand National favourite My Will could wipe out Britain’s bookies this weekend with victory in the famous handicap.
Betting giants William Hill estimate that over half of punters betting on the Grand National base their selections on runners’ names and fear the popular christian name connection could lead to a multi million pound bookie bashing!
Records suggest that in excess of 500,000 people in the UK hold the first name ‘William’, with nearly 300,000 have the surname ‘Williams’.
To make matters worse My Will is piloted by punters favourite Ruby Walsh and trained by the number one, Paul Nicholls.
Kate Miller, spokeswoman for Hills, said: ”It could be carnage for the bookies if My Will prevails on Saturday. We estimate the industry could be rocked with a payout in excess of £100million. EVERYONE out there knows someone with the name ‘Will’, it could be our worst Grand National result in the last decade.”
*In 1999 Bobbyjo cost the bookies bundles when backed into 10/1 before romping home in the Grand National.
Don’t forget to buy your Racing Post Grand National Newspaper on Saturday for the latest Grand National News
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It is a hundred years since a French horse – the great champion Luteur III – won the Aintree Grand National. While there is nothing statistically magical about centuries, the French-bred contingent in 2009 under starter’s orders in this year’s race is an exceptionally strong pack which looks certain to confirm the recent exploits of Kauto Star and his compatriots at Cheltenham. A studious review of the Gallic forces is therefore imperative.
Firstly, there is a near G20-level of agreement concerning the chances of the Jonjo O’Neilltrained 9-year old, Butler’s Cabin (FR), who will be ridden by Tony McCoy, at the midweight of 10-13. By Poliglote out of the Bering mare Strictly Cool, the bay gelding has the size and jumping ability that his pedigree suggests. Fifth at Cheltenham last month, he comes sufficiently fresh to Saturday’s big race. Although McCoy has never won a National, his tally of over 3000 National Hunt wins is the supreme argument that silences every sceptic. The long trip will test the his mount’s stamina. The short odds on offer may dissuade the value-seeking punter, but should not deprive others of enjoyment.
My Will (FR), mounted by in-form top jumps jockey Ruby Walsh, carries more weight at 11-4 than one might enjoy in a 4m4f race. His handler Paul Nicholls is confident nevertheless. In the distant past, the bay gelding was trained by Guillaume Macaire, whose highly successful yard is a dominant force in France. My Will represents a tantalizing offer with a 20% strike rate over shorter distances, but the weight handicap will be very difficult over the distance. Golden Flight (FR) is another ex-Macaire horse, now handled by Nigel Henderson. Some support might be found in his ride under Barry Geraghty at Cheltenham last month. However, it is hard to see why the 10-year old can return to challenge seriously at this level, and even 66/1 looks expensive.
There is more to like with Mon Môme (FR). Liam Treadwell rides the Venetia Williamstrained 9-year old, whose best performances at longer distances have been on much softer ground. However, barring accidents, he is a handy jumper who will get the trip. A place opportunity at 66/1 or better. The horses of French trainer François-Marie Cottin are as industrious as their workaholic trainer. Under jockey Philippe Carberry, Musica Bella (FR) is a brave 9-year old mare that carries 10-10. She has not run since September 2008, an absence which probably should not be attributed to her owner’s racing policy. The big Aintree fences will be daunting for her, so only kind hearts will encourage her at 66/1 for a place. She is more likely to be pulled up.
The Enda Bolger-trained L’ami (FR) knows the course well enough from his last heroic escapade in the Grand National. The well-bred chesnut gelding came to Bolger from François Doumen’s formidable raiding yard, and his preparation for the John Smith Grand National has been perfect and highly consistent. He has the stamina and the jumping ability. Carrying 10-11, under in-form Choc Thornton, at 25/1, L’ami is optimal E/W French value. The 11-year old ex-Doumen Kelami (FR) has not returned to his best. Cerium (FR) and he appear very long shots, despite the former’s 35% lifetime strike rate.
In conclusion, the difficulties facing French-trained horses in the John Smith’s Grand National are well-documented. Any race over 4m4f combined with 30 massive jumps, some of which have significant landing drops, requires special and exclusive preparation. No French trainer willingly surrenders the jumps racing prize money available in France, in order to campaign for the remote chance of a victory at Aintree. However, French-bred English and Irish trained runners have excellent credentials and stand good chances of figuring in the winners enclosure. Expect to see one or more from the trio Butler’s Cabin, L’ami, and Mon Môme. Look for bookmakers paying out on the first five places.
The French-bred horses in the John Smith’s Grand National.
The 2009 John Smith’s Grand National Guide 2009 at Aintree on Saturday promises to have the usual excitement attached with Horse Racing’s most famous event on the calendar.
This year’s content is as open as ever and once more promises to be full of high drama for us punters. With the ground expected to be Good, Good to Soft in Places the lower weighted horses, tradition states, fare well around Aintree.
It is hard to rule out anti-post favourite My Will, given the form of Irish jockey Ruby Walsh and champion trainer Paul Nicholls. Walsh, fresh after returning from the recent Cheltenham festival as the leading jockey with a record breaking seven victories, will be hoping that his mount can repeat the performance he put in last month’s Gold Cup. On that day, the 100-1 chance ran a blinding race behind Kauto Star and a drop of six pounds in the weights makes him a lively contender. He has stamina to burn and if he can handle the Aintree fences he has a leading chance of giving Walsh another winner for the season.
Tony McCoy, who left people waiting right up until the final moments before announcing his ride at this year’s event, will be hoping to land his first Grand National success on board another Cheltenham runner, Butler’s Cabin. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill felt his charge was travelling well in last year’s Grand National when he fell second time around at Beechers and if he can complete the course this year he will be right up there for the honours. McCoy had a disappointing Festival by his high standards and he will be more than ready to show Walsh and co that he is still the top man in the locker room. Butler’s Cabin ran a creditable race at the Festival last month when finishing fifth behind Character Building in his first jump over fences since November. Connections feel he will come on from that run and put in a solid performance for the Champion jockey.
Rambling Minster (nap), the mount of James Reverley has a leading chance to scoop the honour. A solid jumper, the 11-year-old has won in his last two races and another big performance is expected from a horse that looks like he is still progressing despite his years. The Grand National Guide seems to favour horses lower in the weights and at 10st 9lbs he will love the ground and will stay forever, especially after his recent success against Alexanderthegreat at Cheltenham back in January when he ran on well after coming off the pace. Last time out at Haydock he again ran on well beating Coe by 3 and a half lengths after another impressive round of jumping, despite receiving a rise of 8lbs in the weights that day following his January victory. If he can repeat that performance today there are few who will be able to beat him past the post.
If you are looking for value in the race then it is hard to look beyond the two previous winners of this contest with 2007 victor Silver Birch joined in the field by last year’s champion, Comply or Die. It is fair to say that Silver Birch is not the horse of old having spent much of last season on the Vet’s table with injury before returning to action recently with two disappointing runs. However, connections think it may be third time lucky with him in 2009 and a small punt each-way looks the value. His Aintree winning colleague, Comply or Die, jumped superbly last year and ran a credible 7th behind Wichita Lineman at Cheltenham last time out when wearing headgear for the first time. A repeat of that performance, coupled with his impressive jumping from last year, will give this Aintree veteran a big chance of a repeat of his 2008 win under the leadership of Timmy Murphy once more.
Of the bigger prices horses Cloudy Lane looks good value at a bigger price having started favourite 12 months ago but finished sixth behind the eventual winner having been held up much of the way. A more positive ride this year is the plan this time around and, as such, the Donald McCain Junior 9-year-old could come close despite carrying top weight in the race. Last year’s third Snowy Morning is again expected to run a big race but he needs to improve his jumping if he wants to finish higher this year as do lively outsiders Golden Flight, Battle Cry and Killbeggan Blade whilst of the real big prices if you are Stan why not have an each-way shot on your namesake? Jonathan Sugar
Grand National Form 2009
Could last week’s Cheltenham Festival have been any better? Sure, we all would have liked a double on Venetia Williams’ winners but for sheer excitement and drama I cannot remember a better race meeting.
Highlight for me was Tony McCoy guiding home Wichita Lineman in the William Hill Trophy. You will not see a greater ride outside Disneyland. McCoy, like the majority of his colleagues, has broken more bones than Humpty Dumpty but continues to ply his trade without fuss or ceremony. He is a credit to the sport and his profession.
My only slight grumble goes to the idiot who accosted me near the Arkle bar before the Gold Cup. He had obviously just returned from a ‘Most Boisterous Trouser’ convention and was sporting a ghastly checked pair once owned by Rupert the Bear.
‘Do you want to know who will win the Gold Cup?’ he inquired of me.
‘Yes please’, I answered.
‘Denman Star’ offered back my new found Nostradamus. As the News of the World might say I quickly made my excuses and left.
Certainly, four days down at Cheltenham is one of the toughest and most demanding occasions in the racing calendar and many fail to stay the trip. The same could be said of next month’s John Smith’s Grand National. Run over four and a half miles the winner needs to have confirmed stamina to see out the marathon distance. Last year’s victor Comply Or Die is a perfect case having won a Grade 2 over 3m2f as a four-year-old, before winning the 4m1f Eider Chase two months before triumphing at Liverpool.
It may seem obvious but oppose any classy horses that turn up with grand national form over shorter trips, and also be very wary of horses carrying more than 11 stone. In the last 20 years only Hedgehunter has managed this feat when victorious in 2005. For this reason I would look to take on present favourite My Will. Despite an eye catching fifth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he is set to carry 11st3lbs as a two pound weights rise looks almost certain with Snoopy Loopy’s rumoured defection. Add to that Paul Nicholls’ poor record in the race (only eight finishers from 40 runners) and he is far too short at 10/1.
At the prices two horses stand out. Rambling Minster won the 4 mile Scottish Border National on soft ground in December 2007 and has won his last two starts. Aimed specifically for the race he is set to carry 10st8lbs and looks value at 20/1 with Boylesports and Skybet.
At big odds Nicky Henderson’s Golden Flight also looks interesting. Sent over from France to run in the National, the 10-year-old ran a useful prep race at the Cheltenham Festival and has top class grand national form across the sea, including a noticeable 3m5f victory on soft ground. The 50/1 with William Hill and Betfred should be taken.
Can McCoy, O’Neill and McManus break their Grand National duck with Butler’s Cabin?
McCoy’s confirmation earlier today that he will be riding Butler’s Cabin in the 2009 Grand National has significantly improved JP McManus’ chances of bagging a Grand National. Despite all their successes McCoy, Jonjo and JP are all still chasing the elusive title of Grand National winner, although it looks as if the tables may be turned this weekend. Their major hope, Butler’s Cabin, is well weighted at 10 stone 13, is suited to good ground and is reported to be in good form, following a promising performance in his warm up race at Cheltenham two weeks ago.
Butler’s Cabin demonstrated his aptitude for distance in the National Hunt Chase at the 2007 Cheltenham Festival and followed up just weeks later by taking the Irish National, in the hands of McCoy. As an obvious National contender he was then carefully handled, with the sole aim of the 2008 Grand National in mind. But 2008 wasn’t to be his year. Becher’s Brook posed problems for him as the 6th and eventually ended his race on the second circuit, although he was still going strongly and disputing the lead at this point. Intensive schooling this season over O’Neill’s National style birch fences at Jackdaws Castle, coupled with another year’s chasing experience should stand him in good stead for this weekend’s contest though. Add to this McCoy’s determination to win this particular race after drawing 13 blanks on his previous efforts and with horse, jockey and stables all in good form the Ladbrooks offer of 9-1 is worth a punt.
For an each way chance the Tom George trained Kilbeggan Blade offers some value at 25-1 with Sportingbet. He is an out-and-out stayer that operates on good ground and his early training at Michael Hourigan’s yard (renowned for turning out good jumpers) has given him an excellent grounding for negotiating the National fences. While his win in the fairly uncompetitive Grade 3 London National at Sandown in December may not have proved a great deal, the horse has been continuing to improve and should go well under his allotted 10 stone 7. Winning Grand National jockey Graham Lee takes the ride and hopes to repeat his 2004 success when he partnered Amberleigh House to victory in this race, who incidentally was another ex Hourigan horse
AINTREE, THE TOPHAM TROPHY, OVER 2 MILES 5 FURLONGS AND 110YARDS OF THE GRAND NATIONAL COURSE AND GRAND NATIONAL FENCES
Paul Nicholls saddles 4 runners in this intriguing contest, including Mr.Pointment a course and distance winner. Nozic, the top weight has a good chance on his best form , but my idea of the most likely winner for the West Country magician would be New Little Bric. The ex-French horse blasted home last time out at Newbury, always being prominent in first time headgear. I can se him being ridden positively over the birch tomorrow and if he jumps will take the beating.
However, looking back through the form guide, I like two horses against him at massive odds. The Peter Bowen trained Always Waining has extremely uninspiring form figures, pulled up the last 3 times. He has been carrying big weights apart from the Welsh Grand National and is now reunited with Tom O’Brien who has won on him twice. He has a live outside chance as his last two wins came on good going, one of them at Aintree. His current odds of 40/1 look enticing, and let’s face it, over the National fences, there’s always a chance that a horse can be lit up by the experience. His racing weight of 10.7. looks ideal.
My main fancy is the talented but mistake prone horse from Andy Turnell’s
Stable, Bible Lord. This horse has won on all types of going and reverting to Denman’s 2007 Hennessey triumph, Bible Lord, still relatively unexposed, was travelling well on the heels of the leaders when his rider dropped his whip and could not encourage the horse to progress further. He has run some good races since but has been let down by bad blunders, but still managing to fill respectable positions in decent handicaps. Once again , last time out at Cheltenham in the Freddie Williams Plate he tipped up. His jumping is a grave cause for concern, but he is undoubtedly a very talented animal and is a 2and a half mile specialist, even if he was entered for the Grand National! I am hoping he will be shocked into jumping better by the formidable Aintree fences. Mad? Probably!
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Stake £10 on any horse in this year’s Grand National and Boylesports will double your bet! Boylesports are also paying ¼ the odds a place on the first six home, giving you even more value in the nation’s favourite race. Your best bet on the Grand National 2009.
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