Grand National Bets Pinstickers Guide 2009

It’s that time of year again. Housewives are polishing their lucky pins. The rather strange girl from accounts is busy organising the office sweepstake. And the BBC is preparing old footage of Des Lynam, Jenny Pitman and Red Rum for broadcast.

That’s right, it’s the Grand National Betting Pinstickers’ Guide at Aintree. The world famous steeplechase takes place this Saturday and horse racing will grip the nation for ten minutes as 40 horses thunder across the 4 mile 4 furlong course.

Whilst many traditions remain around this great old race, there have also been big changes over recent years. In the past, the best chance of getting a decent free horse racing tips would have seen you entering a smoky old bookmaking shop and asking one of the miserable looking punters for some betting advice.

But that’s all gone. Bookmakers are now clean, bright and welcoming shops offering tea, coffee and free bets. And the Grand National has also had a facelift.

Extensive work on the course in recent years has seen the ground improved and the mighty fences are now much smaller. This has meant that whilst the National used to be a bit of lottery, today it has become a top quality handicap chase and it is worth looking to the form book to find a winner.

So with this in mind, how should you best take advantage of all those free bookmaker offers?

The weights are always important and with only one horse since 1982 carrying over 11 stone to victory there is a serious question mark over current favourite My Will. But the combination of Cheltenham Gold Cup winning jockey Ruby Walsh and champion trainer Paul Nicholls should always be noted. And with a good previous run over the left-handed Aintree Melling track the 8/1 on offer from Stan James could be worth taking.

Butlers Cabin offers Tony McCoy the chance to break his Grand National jinx. The Jonjo O’Neill trained 9-year-old fell last at Bechers Brook second time round in 2008 but has been carefully prepared for the race and 10/1 with William Hill looks a good price.

Next in the betting comes Rambling Minister, available at 12/1 with Paddy Power. This horse has only had eleven starts over fences, winning three and placing in four. Having won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham over four miles and one furlong and carrying 10st 9lbs and with plenty of stamina, this might be one to watch.

State of Play, currently 14/1 with Coral, will have a good chance if things go his way during the race and looks fairly handicapped.

The biggest ante-post gamble leading up to National has been on Parsons Legacy.  At the start of the week, the 11-year-old Phillip Hobbs trained runner was 33/1 but is now best odds with Ladbrokes at 16/1. Ideally looking for soft ground against the good, good to firm conditions at Aintree, he still has solid form having placed third in Scottish Grand National last year and has been specifically prepared for the race this time out.

Next in the betting come Black Apalachi (16/1 BetFred) and Hear The Echo (16/1 Sportingbet). Both have their merits but the former really needs soft ground and the latter may have had a stronger case as winner of the Irish National at Fairyhouse in 2008 except for having unseated his rider in his last run out.

Last year’s winner, Comply Or Die can be backed to repeat his victory at 20/1 with William Hill. He is not coming into the race with great form and is also carrying 15lbs more than in 2008 so perhaps a place bet might be sensible.

Of the rest, Kilbeggan Blade will interest the each-way backers at 25/1 with Totesport and Snowy Morning is 28/1 with SkyBet.

Whoever you decide to back this Saturday afternoon, one thing is clear; whether you are following a betting system, have your ear to the ground for the latest horse racing tips or backing your own judgement, the Grand National is outstanding sporting event like no other.

By the way, my money will be on Rambling Minister to win at a decent price with Hear the Echo as a little each way fancy.

Why Should I Bet on the Grand National Online?
Betting online holds many advantages over placing your bet in a betting shop.
1. You can bet from the comfort of your own home, there is no need to make a journey to your nearest bookmakers.
2. It is both easy and secure to place bets online with betting shops that you recognise.
3. Free bets are available from a number of online bookmakers.
4. You can compare odds from 17 UK bookmakers and betting exchanges to find the best odds on your selection.
5. Special Grand National promotions are available from online bookmakers. e.g each way bets may include an extra place, paying out if your horse finishes in the first five places rather than normal first four places.

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The sweepstake kit is now ready for the Grand National 2009. The final 40 runners have been declared for Saturday’s Grand National, 4.15pm and we are ready to go.

Download and print your free Grand National sweepstake kit courtesy of Grand National Guide.

www.grandnationalsweepstake.com

Just open the sweepstake kit page, print it out and cut out the runners. Then randomly draw each horse and insert names in the table on the second page, to keep a record of who has which horse. Perhaps charge £2 to pick a horse, making a £80 pot. I would suggest that 1st place takes home £50, 2nd place £15, 3rd place £10 and 4th place £5. Let me know how you get on.

The bookmakers are competing for your business, so there are loads of freebets available this year. I have rounded them up at www.mybetting.co.uk/free_bets.htm , so please take advantage of them, while they last.

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Much was made of the battle at Cheltenham between those two foremost NH and recognisable jockeys Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh – despite McCoy’s action packed ride on Wichita Lineman it was Walsh who took the honours numerically and in terms of the ultimate prize the Gold Cup on Kauto Star.

Unsurprisingly, these two meet again on Saturday in the nation’s favourite and most famous race, the Aintree Grand National – and their records are as diverse in this race as they were at the recent Cheltenham Festival. Walsh has two wins, courtesy of Papillion in 2000 and Hedgehunter in 2005, whilst McCoy is still winless in fourteen attempts, the nearest he has finished is third on a trio of occasions.

On Saturday, they partner the front two in the betting where Walsh will be hoping to improve Champion trainer Paul Nicholls dreadful record in this race, 40 runners and no wins, and in fact only eight of those have completed the course. Gold Cup fifth My Will who Walsh partners on Saturday looks like he will start favourite on Saturday and he may have to overcome a hard race at Cheltenham and some doubts about his jumping.

Butlers Cabin who McCoy rides, has not won for two years, but he was tanking along disputing the lead last year when he fell at Becher’s second time round – he was staying on in pleasing style last time out and he runs off the same mark as last year, it may well be McCoy who has the better of his personal battle with Walsh this time around but I feel that the winner will come from elsewhere.

My usual starting point for whittling down the forty strong field are three of the stronger trends that have been maintained over the past few years, the first of these are not too support any horse aged eight or under (no winner for 69 years), secondly, cross out any competitor that has not won over three miles (no winner for 39 years) and last but not least, dismiss any horse which is carrying over 11st 5lbs, as just one horse has managed this in the past 50 years.

Those three trends will start to prune the field down and make our lives a little easier – 7 horses fail the weight statistic and the fancied Big Fella Thanks along with Can’t Buy Time are dismissed on account of their age, so those two stats alone cut our field by a quarter. Throw in another four which don’t fail the first two stats and we have got rid of thirteen horses so far in our quest for the National winner.

So that’s some which we can safely ignore but enough negatives, lets look for some positives and surely we have to include at least one Irish horse amongst our National selections – they have after all won six of the last ten renewals, registering a hat-trick of wins between 2005 & 2007. The team from the Emerald Isle numbers eleven on Saturday and it would be a surprise if they do not go close, although it may not be with one of the more obvious contenders – the two nearest the head of the market Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi both have plus points but the former will need to jump better and is dangerously near being above the weight trend and although the latter has sluiced up here over the fences in the Becher Chase in November that was on soft going and he is unlikely to get that on Saturday.

The two that did catch my eye from the Irish squad were at bigger prices and may provide a touch of value on Saturday – Himalayan Trail used to be trained this side of the Irish Sea by Sue Smith and having landed the Midlands Grand National in 2008 he was bought by Jimmy Mangan with this race as an obvious target, and the likely faster ground will suit him and his handler knows what it takes to win the race having landed this with Monty’s Pass in 2003. The other “Celtic tiger” is a talented chaser – Southern Vic - with only a few miles on the clock and one for a while who had the same profile as the 2000 winner Papillion – well he is trained by the same man but unfortunately won’t be ridden by the same jockey, his son Ruby – but in “Slippers” Madden has an excellent deputy – he has after all ridden a National winner himself. A little more cut might be required but the drift in the betting due to Ruby’s rejection is an overreaction.
On then to the home defence – last years winner Comply Or Die bids to defend his crown but would appear weighted out of this now and I would rather look elsewhere. The quartet which at first glance catch the eye are Rambling Minster, Parsons Legacy, Darkness and Brooklyn Brownie.

Rambling Minster has powered to victory in his past two races at Cheltenham and Haydock respectively and the change of tactics which have seen him ridden much closer to the pace of late will be ones which will work much better at Aintree on Saturday, extreme hold up horses do not have the greatest record of late in the big race and expect to see the Keith Reveley trained gelding nearer the front than back on Saturday. He may now be eleven but he has only had fifteen races over fences and the key factor is that he has never fallen and not many jumping errors appear on his CV. There are very few holes in his overall profile.

Darkness on some of his form is amongst the best handicapped in the race and although he has never fallen, his overall profile does contain some jumping blemishes but that old form looks seductive in the context of this race and some of the horses that he receives weight from.

Parsons Legacy has been the plunge horse of the week, a return to form is needed, but he goes well when fresh and he’ll enjoy the sounder surface, his price fall has been fuelled by positive comments from his normally cautious trainer and if he takes to these fences he will run a big race on Saturday.

A more speculative selection to complete the home foursome is the Malcolm Jefferson trained Brooklyn Brownie – he’s made steady progress and had showed aptitude over these very fences in the Grand Sefton in November. Stamina is a slight doubt but he shapes like a stayer and has an eye catching weight and aged ten is certainly the right age for the race.

So lots to digest before the race on Saturday, some trends to narrow the field down, the McCoy Walsh head to head and some classy chasers from both sides of the Irish Sea.

For my money – Rambling Minster, Parsons Legacy, Himalayan Trail and Southern Vic provide four with strong credentials to be the Aintree victor in 2009.

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The Grand National Betting Guide

How many times have you heard people at work, in the pub, at church describe the Grand National a lottery. Hundreds? Wish you had been given a pound coin for every time you have heard that phrase. Well it might have something to do with to do with the first National winner having that name or the fact that people find it really hard to search through all the runners with any confidence. After all those old enough – early fifties – will remember Foinavon. Those luckily younger will remember the void race. And who hasn’t heard of Red Rum.

Judged by many to be the greatest race in the world – it has had some name changes over the years from The Sun, Martel, through to the ever popular John Smiths Grand National. It has featured great personal stories and triumphs – such as Bob Champion’s victory on Aldaniti, Ginger McCain’s resurgence as a top national trainer, the Walsh’s father and son success on Papillon, and the unforgettable ‘Better than sex’ comment from Mick Fitzgerald.

The most popular result this year will probably be a victory for AP McCoy. Well what are his chances? Seemingly very good. Let me explain.

For those who believe the National is a lottery, worse than bingo and harder than the Scoop 6 then stop reading now. Just pick a number between 1 and 40 back that, enjoy yourself watching the race with a beer in hand, shouting ‘Go On’ as loud as you can at the TV screen as you ride the race. Then spend your winnings wisely!

For those people who enjoy the race for the fantastic puzzle it is read on.

Did you know by applying a little of knowledge of the statistics of the race you increase your chances of finding the winner by a significant amount.

Let me give you the profile of the winner– its form if you like since 1991

1. It’s normally between 8 to 12 years of age.
2. It normally carries under 11 stone – only Hedgehunter has won carrying more (11.1)
3. It has earned an official rating of 139 or more.
4. It has achieved a Racing Post performance rating of 144.
5. It’s starting price has been less than 40/1

At the time of writing – Thursday – we are left with twelve contenders. And McCoy has a choice of two from those contenders.

Does the race feel such a lottery now? Have we just turned that fiendish equine sudoku into something more easily solvable? Starting to fancy a flutter with your favourite bookie – maybe Ladbrokes, William Hill, Victor Chandler or you may simply want to BetFred. Maybe you’ll want to exchange your ideas with WBX.

Before you do that lets take the analysis a little further. We now need to look at form of each contender. You’ll need to access the Racing Post website or buy their newspaper to do this with any confidence. Read it, study it and if a contender can be eliminated from the list all well and good. The fewer on the short-list the better our chance of making money.

From personal choice I’m going to reject Parson’s Legacy, L’Ami, Himalayan Trail Kilbeggan Blade, Southern Vic and Cornish Sett from my list because they are not running well, have poor previous Aintree form, or just don’t look up to the challenge, This will leave a short list of six.

Butlers Cabin, Offshore Account, Darkness, Irish Invader, Rambling Minister and Brooklyn Brownie are the ones for me.

So, with a little knowledge and a bit of analysis I have what I consider to be a strong hand in that game of poker otherwise know as the National.

The real deal now is to decide how to play these horses to maximise potential profit. The choices are:
1. Straight win bets
2. Each way bets
3. Forecasts
4. Back-to-lay on Betfair or one of the other betting exchanges.
5. Novelty bets offered by our friendly bookies.

Whichever I choose I’m going to wait for the day before I finally decide. The list may alter by Saturday, but I cannot see it changing that much. If I arrive at a strong fancy on the day I would be most likely to play a straight win. It seems more likely this year that I will play most of the six as I feel there is no horse with a strong advantage over the others.

Whatever the outcome one thing is for sure – it will provide an answer to the question posed in the title. Yes - the level of excitement, arousal and thrill the race provides can most certainly put as an experience on a par with sex. No – the dull, number racket called the lottery, in comparison, has all the disappointment of a first fence faller.

I’ll leave you with my best wishes and my two favourite Grand National quotes. I’ve already mentioned Mick Fitzgerald’s, but when juxtaposed with trainer Captain Tim Foster’s instructions to his jockey to ‘Keep remounting’ I can’t help but smile.

Go on!

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It is Grand National Aintree 2009 time of year again and as usual what a race it should prove to be. This year’s Grand National betting is the most open-looking in recent years, with My Will becoming clear market leader only this week after it was announced that Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls would definitely team up in an effort to win the richest prize in National Hunt racing. Ruby Walsh is going for his third win in the race, having ridden Papillon to win in 2000 and Hedgehunter in 2005, but Paul Nicholls Grand National winners are a rarer deal indeed. Paul Nicholls is bidding for his first win in the world’s greatest steeplechase, with My Will heading up his team in the 2009 Grand National. His other intended runners are Eurotrek, Cornish Sett and the lightly-raced Big Fella Thanks. Purely from a pricewise point of view, Big Fella Thanks might be the best bet amongst that quartet. Owned by the big-time punter Harry Findlay, Big Fella Thanks has progressed with every start and, third in the Racing Post Chase on his latest outing, he probably has more to improvement in him still. At the time of writing Big Fella Thanks is available at best odds of 22/1.

It is a well reported fact that Tony McCoy has yet to ride a winner of the Grand National and you can be sure that there will be no more a determined jockey riding in this year’s renewal. He has yet to choose between Butler’s Cabin and L’Ami, each horse possessing sound claims on form, though Butler’s Cabin is the better fancied of the two, the pair currently trading at best odds of 10/1 and 22/1 respectively. If you fancy Tony McCoy to win the race without knowing which horse he is on, in effect relying on McCoy’s judgement to pick the better horse of the two, you can back Tony McCoy to win the Grand National with Paddy Power at 10/1 as part of their Grand National specials markets.

A long-time friend of the John Smiths Grand National is the owner of Blackpool Tower Trevor Hemmings. As usual he has a few runners in the 2009 National, including the top-weight and 2008 Grand National favourite Cloudy Lane and the useful but unpredictable Idle Talk. Both horses are relatively unfancied in the latest Grand National betting, but with both having gone well around Aintree in the past they are worth considering if your idea of a Grand National bet is a speculative each-way flutter. Cloudy Lane can be backed at 40/1 while Idle Talk is on offer at a massive 66/1.

With a number of bookmakers offering best odds guaranteed as well as non runner no bet markets in the run-up to the National, there has never been a better time to be a punter. Make sure you know about these special offers by making www.mybetting.co.uk your first punting port of call.

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Grand National 09 Runners

Often argued as the world’s most famous steeplechase, the Grand National is the ultimate test of jumping and stamina. Thirty tricky fences combined with a 4m 4f marathon trip, means that the winner must be tuned up and ready to race on the big day. Split second misjudgements can be the difference between success and failure, so arguably there is some luck involved.

However, as a betting race, the Grand National brings a whole nation together. Gamblers and non gamblers alike all pick their horse and sit down to watch this exciting race. To try and help you find the winner, here is a preview of the main contenders and a breakdown of the stats.

Let’s start our preview by looking at recent Grand National Tips 2009

Grand National Trends 09

One stat that stands out is horses rarely carry more than 11 stone to victory. If we rule out all those carrying more than 11 st 2 lb (allowing for slight deviation) we can eliminate:

Cloudy Lane
Chelsea Harbour
Snowy Morning
Knowhere
Comply or Die
Ollie Magern
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
Priest’s Leap
My Will
Eurotrek

Younger horses tend to struggle in the National, so we can eliminate those aged 7 or less. This eliminates:

Big Fella Thanks
Can’t Buy Time

Interestingly every winner but 1 has run more than 4 times in the season in the last 21 years. This can rule out:

State of Play
Silver Birch
Offshore Account
Parsons Legacy
Reveillez
Golden Flight
Darkness
Arteea
Cerium
Kelami
Zabenz
Maljimar (May not get in to race)

That rules out 25 of the possible 41 runners, and after analysing the form, I have narrowed the field down to a shortlist of 7.

Grand National Form 09

Butlers Cabin

The likely ride of Tony McCoy and one of the shorter priced horses in the race. He is one of the dourest stayers in racing right now and has to be respected. He was unlucky in last year’s National when falling at Bechers Brook and comes here off a lower handicap mark. He has had 4 runs to get him ready for this race; all of them over trip’s too short for the horse. This horse stays, can jump and goes for the Champion Jockey. Fancied horses do well in the race. Live claims. 10/1

Cornish Sett

Trained by Paul Nicholls who trains the favourite, and is one of my outsiders for this race. He was a disappointing 12th in last year’s National, but comes into this race in much better form than last year. After falling on his seasonal bow, his form reads 1-2-8, and he has shown he is looking for a step up in trip when he was a staying on 2nd in the Welsh National over 3m 3f. Completed the National course before so we can trust his jumping. 33/1

Irish Invader

One thing to note is the excellent record the Irish have in this race and that counts in Irish Invader’s favour. Willie Mullins has taken this horse down in trip and back to basics in an attempt to improve his jumping. He has taken to it like a fish to water and has hacked up on his last 4 starts. Can he repeat it over 4m 4f at Aintree with these fences? 25/1

Kilbeggan Blade

One of the most consistent horses in training. He has already registered 3 victories and a 2nd this season, one coming over 3m 5f at Sandown showing he is a stayer. Never run at Aintree before, but goes best when stamina is really tested and has to be respected. 22/1

Brooklyn Brownie

Another consistent stayer for Malcolm Jefferson and he also has the added bonus of having form over the National fences. He enjoys firmer ground which is another positive given the likely conditions and if he improves on his jumping, 33/1 could look a big price. 33/1

Himalayan Trail

Trained by John Joseph Mangam, who trained Monty’s Pass to win this race in 02’. When you initially look at the form figures, you would instantly discount him but when you look back to his form in Britain, he has to be respected. A win in the Midlands National over 4m 1f on his last run for Sue Smith’s stable shows he stays and he took to the fences well in the Becher Chase. Can’t be ignored. 33/1

Golden Flight – This is the final horse I want to throw into the mix to defy all the stats. Golden Flight was bought specifically for this race and has had 1 run to get him ready at the Cheltenham Festival. He was clearly in need of that run and stayed on one paced over a trip far too short. That race will have put him spot on for this, and I expect him to upset the trends. 66/1

Conclusion:

With the prices in the National, you can get off with selecting 5 or 6 against the field as long as you include some outsiders.

2 pts win Butlers Cabin @ 10/1 Bet365
1 pt ew Cornish Sett @ 33/1 Totesport
1 pt ew Kilbeggan Blade @ 22/1 Totesport
1 pt ew Brooklyn Brownie @ 33/1 Bet 365
0.5 pt ew Irish Invader @ 25/1 William Hill
0.5 pt ew Himalayan Trail @ 33/1 Bet 365
0.5 pt ew Golden Flight @ 66/1 Bet 365

Total Staked: 11 pts

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Grand National 09 Favourite Watch – My Will

The current ante post favourite for the race and it isn’t difficult to see why. Trained by current Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh, this horse looks to have the class form in the book to take this National. He came back this season after an 18 month absence and ran with credit in the Hennessey at Newbury. He then followed up with a very creditable run in the Gold Cup. He was always going to face an impossible task against the likes of Kauto Star and Denman, but he stayed on again after being outpaced to take 5th @ 100/1. That run catapulted him to the head of the Grand National market and he has been there since. He has shown in the past he relishes a test of stamina and his record when going further than 3 miles reads 3-F-3-1-12-3-5-5. These figures are made even more impressive when excuses can be made for his poor runs. 2 (5th and 12th) were in Gold Cup’s and 1 run (5th) was after an 18 month absence. That leaves a record of 3-F-3-1-3 when going further than 3 miles.

His jumping is solid and he has strong claims here. The worries are the weight and the lack of runs.
Stewart Davidson

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At 3:45pm on Thursday 2nd April 2009, the John Smith’s Foxhunters Chase will be run at Aintree, the home of the most famous steeplechase race in the world – The Grand National. The Foxhunters Chase is the amateur jockey’s Grand National, the highlight of their racing year having spent weekend after weekend riding in Point-to-Points up and down the country.
Run over the national course over 2miles, 5 furlongs the runners negotiate 18 of the national fences. Their first fence would be the thirteenth in the actual Grand National and this means that the famous Chair fence standing at five foot three inches with a six foot ditch on the take off side is the third obstacle they face before they complete a full circuit of the course and finish up the famous run in negotiating the elbow.

This year Sam Waley-Cohen will be on Blu Teen, a 9 year old who was previously victorious over hurdles and chases for The Stewart Family when trained by Paul Nicholls but is now trained by David Staddon for Miss Caroline Parsons. Sam Waley-Cohen has been extremely successful in the Aintree Foxhunters Chase in the past. Riding his father’s Katarino, Sam won the race in 2005 and 2006 and this pairing were beaten into second place by 9 lengths last year by Christy Beamish who they had beaten by 7 lengths in 2006. At 33/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast Blu Teen doesn’t look as if he will be providing Sam with his third triumph in the race in five years but he could run a good race and might sneak in an each-way return.

12 year old Christy Beamish returns to defend his crown, but will be partnered this year by Claire Allen and is currently 10/1 to achieve back to back wins. So far this year he has failed to show the form he had last year at Aintree and his last run in the Cheltenham Foxhunters saw him tailed off from fence twelve and eventually pulled up 2 out. If he remembers where he is and enjoys himself he could be there, but his moment may have passed and there are others who could land the spoils.

Agus A Vic will probably start as the favourite, currently at 7/2 in the Racing Post Betting Forecast he has the credentials to win the race. This 8 year old was disappointing in the 2008 Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase when he was the 5/1 favourite. He was pulled up three out, but was later reported to have bled. He returned to form however in his next run at Punchestown although many believe that Southwestern would have won the race had he not crashed out at the penultimate fence. Agus A Vic is always well held up in the early stages of the race and won the race on the run in overhauling Alert The Earth. He started his next race on Boxing Day in a Hunter Chase as the 5/4 favourite, but was brought down at the seventh fence, but has since recorded another victory this time at Leopardstown on 15th February where again he was held up and only reached the front on the run in.

Richard Burton who rode Cappa Bleu to victory in the 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase is taking the ride around Aintree on Distant Thunder who was second in a Hunter Chase at Newbury on February 27th and was also 2nd in a point to point at Larkhill in January. Currently at 14/1 he could start a much shorter price with one of the top amateurs on board.

Other contenders worth a mention include Le Duc from Paul Nicholls yard who finished ninth at Cheltenham. He got himself into contention despite being hampered and was in with a chance but just seemed to run out of energy after the last. If he can put in a better jumping display, as he hit a few at Cheltenham he to could be in with a chance approaching the elbow.
Sonevafushi was fourth in the race last year under Ollie Greenall. This year younger brother Jake takes the ride. Sonevafushi won a point-to-point at Sheriff Hutton on January 18th and might improve on last years placing.
Man From Highworth has also been seen on the point-to-point scene this season finishing second in the Mixed Open at Barbury Racecourse on January 17th. He has also finished second in two hunter chases since, at Ludlow on February 18th and Leicester on March 6th.
Theatre Knight from Simon Tindall’s yard is also interesting having run in point-to-points over the past couple of years. This season he has finished 3rd at Detling on January 18th, 2nd at Charing on February 22nd and won at Parham on March 21st, he will be ridden by stable trainer / jockey Nick Pearce.

In summary, as with the Grand National anything can happen, but generally speaking there have been few surprises in the Foxhunters and the winner is often priced at 8/1 or lower. 9 – 11 year olds have a good record in the race and the winner has predominantly either won or been placed in their previous race before the Foxhunters. Agus a Vic will meet 2 of these conditions and definitely looks the pick of the bunch. Whatever happens, whoever wins, all 30 jockeys have 1 main aim, to get round safely and hopefully be in with a chance at the elbow.

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Grand National Horse Race
Forget Miss Marple’s hat pin, it’s Hercule Poirot’s “ little grey cells “ that we need to deploy to find the winner of this year’s John Smith’s Grand National on Saturday at Aintree.

Between now and the great day, there will be more plunges and ‘plotted’ horses being backed off the boards than Captain Hastings has witnessed dire murders. Good Lord! Only yesterday a massive gamble on Parsons Legacy emerged leaving that animal a best priced 14s from 40s and 33s. Likewise earlier in the week, State of Play was reduced from 20s to 14s. When Ruby Walsh decided to ride My Will for Paul Nicholls instead of his father’s Southern Vic, the horse was shortened to 7-1 favourite. With the news that Clerk of the Course, Andrew Tulloch has decided to water the Grand National course every day up until Saturday to ensure “ good, safe ground “ , we are left with another poser. Today, Paddy Power has eased Black Apalachi and Southern Vic, both needing cut in the ground to show their best, out in the betting because of the forecast warm and sunny weather predicted in the Liverpool region this week. However, there is a conflicting report of a band of rain which could reach the area on Saturday which could turn the forecast good, good/soft going to soft or even heavy. Good money for Hear The Echo from Ireland came as a surprise to me yesterday as all the horse’s winning form is on an easy surface, and is set to carry11st.5lb. With Tony McCoy still mulling over his choice of J.P.McManus’s runners, it’s quite possible that last year’s unlucky Becher’s casualty( second time round ) Butler’s Cabin could well go joint favourite with My Will if McCoy plumps for him. Added to this is the considerable confidence from expert pundits behind the Nicholl’s novice Big Fella Thanks at around 20s, and the bang in form Reveley representative Rambling Minster, still on 10s, but whose odds could both tumble.
So we have a number of imponderables to consider : riding arrangements, weather forecasting, course watering and the inevitable defection of horses incurring a knock or niggling injury that will prevent them from running thus contracting the betting market. In past years, nearly all the top 5 in the betting shorten up on the eve of the race.

But we are still going to have a punt, so what are the best deals? Most High Street bookmakers are offering non runner no bet deals. Ladbrokes and William Hill are in this category, but only offer ¼ of the odds 1234. Bet 365 go1/4 odds 12345, as do Stan James ( non runner no bet ) and Boyle Sports. Victor Chandler offer a free bet to your initial stake if your horse falls in the race. Paddy Power offer 12345 at ¼ of the odds too. My advice is to back your selections before Friday, taking a price if your fancies rate from 10s to 25s in the current market.

All we have to do now is find the winner. I went through the form book last night and eliminated half the field on suitability of the expected going. I am aware that because of the intended watering and the risk of rain arriving on Saturday that my conclusions and comments may not be quite so concrete. However, I hope that my analysis and reasoning is cogent and clear.

The stats tell us that in the last 21 years no horse has carried more than 11st. 1lb. to victory( Course specialist Hedgehunter carried 11st.1lb to win in 2005). Also during the same period only 9 to 11 year old have succeeded, with the exception of Bindaree aged 8 in 2002. However, this year there are a number of well fancied runners carrying in excess of 11st.1lb. including current favourite, My Will.
I have tried to condense my appraisal of the more fancied runners’ chances. Here goes:

Dismissed because of propensity for soft or heavy ground or overburdened.
BLACK APALACHI…..thorough stayer, course winner, too much weight 11.5.
CHELSEA HARBOUR…all wins on soft,heavy, too much weight 11.8.
CLOUDY LANE…versatile as far as ground is concerned, too much weight.
COMPLY OR DIE…no problems with going, too much weight, returning winners have poor record.
HEAR THE ECHO…all wins on soft except one success on good/yielding, thorough stayer, too much weight 11.5.
L’AMI….loves soft/heavy ground, thorough stayer and nice weight. Too slow.
PREISTS LEAP…thorough stayer, loves heavy ground, too much weight 11.5.
SNOWY MORNING…3rd. last year, won on soft/heavy, poor effort last time out, made a noise in running according to jockey, too much weight 11.8.
SOUTHERN VIC…loves cut in the ground, has good weight though.

Shortlisted:
MY WILL.. 5th. In this year’s God cup, Ruby Walsh rides, versatile as far as going is concerned, but 11.4. to carry.
RAMBLING MINSTER..in great heart, won over 3 ½ and 4 miles, versatile on the ground issue, perfect racing weight of 10.9. sound jumper.
STATE OF PLAY..won last year’s Hennessey first time out, ran creditably in a Gold Cup , stays well, acceptable weight to carry 11.2.
IRISH INVADER…in excellent form, last 2 races have come over 2m.2f. where it was staying on well, did win over 3m. hurdles previously,versatile groundwise. Nice weight 10.9.
KILBEGGAN BLADE..won on soft and good ground, beat Rambling Minster at Sandown , good racing weight 10.7.
CORNISH SETT…respectable finish in last year’s National, second in Welsh National this year, good weight 10.10. promising jockey N.Schofield, versatile as far as going is concerned.
BIG FELLA THANKS…only a novice, but good run behind Nacarat at Kempton over 3 miles. Won on soft, 11.1.
BUTLER’S CABIN….winning form on good and good/firm ground. Unlucky last year going well when falling at Becher’s second time round, laid out for the trace since last year, good racing weight 10.13. McCoy?

Although emphasis is on jumping ability in this gruelling contest, Maori Venture won in 1987 after having fallen previously at Lingfield; West Tip won his National after falling the previous year at Becher’s, so things could just be right this year for Butler’s Cabin.

Luck in running is a major element in the National, some jockeys prefer to go up the inside, others go wide to keep out of trouble, hoping to ride their race on the second circuit. With all the best research and information to hand it’s still going to be difficult to find the winner.

There are 10 horses which fit the stats for age and weight comparison in this year’s Grand National:
Butler’s Cabin, Parsons Legacy, L’Ami, Cornish Sett, Darkness, Irish Invader, Rambling Minster, Southern Vic, Kilbeggan Blade and Brooklyn Brownie.

My money is on Butler’s Cabin, State of Play, Rambling Minster all to win and Irish Invader E.W.

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The Grand National Line Up : the people’s race

The thundering hooves, the parade, that music from ‘Champions’ – yes, it’s Grand National time again and, from builders to bankers, millions across the nation will stop to watch the Aintree spectacular.
For many, it’s also the only time of the year that they will step into a bookmakers – whether you’ve studied the form, gone with the favourite or simply stuck a pin in, the chances are you’re having a bet.
To pick the winner requires a certain degree…well, alright, a large degree…of luck. And luck is what those 40-odd horses and jockeys will need as they gallop hell for leather towards the first fence. Along the way, they’ll have to negotiate some of the most testing jumps in the racing world – Becher’s Brook, The Chair and Valentine’s to name but a few.
So what should you be looking for when you open your paper on Saturday morning. In a race like this, form can only help you so much, but there are some statistics that might help to sort the wheat from the chaff.
• Twenty five of the last 30 winners have carried less than 11st. On this occasion, that means 14 runners including likely favourite My Will.
• Only five favourites in the last 30 years have won. Yet again it looks like bad news for My Will but last year’s winner Comply Or Die was backed in to joint favouritism before the start.
• The Irish have an excellent record in the National, with six of the past 10 winners being Irish-trained. Black Apalachi, Southern Vic and Hear The Echo are all trained in Ireland and all will be hoping to add to the Irish tally.
But if all you’re after is a few pointers, here’s the lowdown on some of the more fancied runners.

My Will
Ran a great race to finish 5th in the Gold Cup this year and with that only his prep for Aintree, he looks to have a nice weight for a horse with so much class. He’s been heavily gambled on and will be almost certain to start favourite. With champion trainer Paul Nicholls behind him and Ruby Walsh on board he’s got an outstanding chance if he lasts the distance. Heavily gambled on he’s almost certain to start favourite.
Butler’s Cabin
Unlucky in the National last year, he’s one of the few horses in this year’s race that can boast a win over 4 miles. The roar in the winners enclosure will be deafening should Tony McCoy finally break his Grand National hoodoo.
Rambling Minster
11 years old, but has been in great form this year and the trip holds no fears for him. With only 10st 1lb on his back he could go close and I’d expect him to be a good each-way bet.
State of Play
Winner of the Hennessy in 2006, he goes well fresh so that’s on his side. However, his form since hasn’t really lived up to expectations and there have to be doubts about the marathon trip.
Hear The Echo
Irish horses have a fantastic record in the National and Hear The Echo has already won an Irish National, so often a good pointer to the Aintree winner. However, trainer Mouse Morris is worried about the weight he’s been given so hold your bets for the time being.
Comply Or Die
Last year’s winner who won comfortably and in the style of a classy horse. But this year he hasn’t looked like the same animal and there’s certainly nothing like his Eider Chase win of 2008 to suggest he’s in great form. Carrying more weight than last time it seems unlikely he’ll be the first horse since Red Rum to retain the National.

With placed horses so often coming in at fairly big odds, there are others in the race which represent good each-way value.
There have been excellent noises coming from the stable of Kilbeggan Blade who’s had a good season, jumps well and looks like the trip may be right up his street. At around 22-1 he seems to be an excellent each-way bet.
The same can be said of Big Fella Thanks from the Paul Nicholls yard, who is fairly young but consequently quite unexposed and, though only third on his most recent run, he looks like an out-and-out stayer.
Snowy Morning’s price (around 25-1) doesn’t seem to really reflect his ability. Ok, so recent form isn’t encouraging but he does come into his own in the spring and he was placed in the race last year.
Darkness could be the dark horse. Currently trading at around 20-1, he’s had a few problems and does seem to be injury prone, but if he lines up he could be interesting.
Of the real outsiders, Niche Market looks like a progressive horse and seems to jump and gallop like a National type. He’s young but what a day it would be for the also young Harry Skelton if he won.
And remember, many bookmakers will be paying out on the first five horses home, so it’s worth checking at your local betting office.

So what’s the conclusion?…If class was the only factor, then My Will must have a favourite’s chance but luck and pure stamina are of equal importance in this race and I fancy Kilbeggan Blade to put his slick jumping to good use with Rambling Minster, My Will and Butler’s Cabin all excellent each-way bets.
Whatever your choice, whatever the method and whatever the stake - there’s always a chance you could be quids in.

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