Grand National Trends 2016 – Using Stats to Pick A Winner!

The Grand National is often the most difficult race to narrow down across the entire racing calendar. Given that forty top horses will line up at the start for the chase, across four miles and three furlongs of Aintree, there are often many things one has to consider before finally selecting the horse to carry their hopes in the world’s most-famous steeplechase.

Any extra pieces of information that can be gained to rule out potential winners, or ensure that certain horses are included in final calculations, are all taken very seriously in the build-up to the big race.

Due to the race changing massively over the last few years, it may pay to analyse the last five Grand Nationals and attempt to take pearls of wisdom from the trends of the eventual winners.

Long-Run

Weight;

With the exception of Aurora’s Encore, four of the last five winners of the Grand National have all carried 11st or more. This pays homage to the old theory of the best horses were always at the top of the weights, and therefore should be backed ahead of the ones near the tail end of the weights, as they were there for a reason.

This means that we can rule out all those who have weights of 10st 12 or less, which whittles down the field, and gives us eight runners to choose from.

These are Tidal Bay, Long Run, Hunt Ball, Triolo D’Alene, Rocky Creek, Quito De La Roque, Colbert Station and Walkon.

The alterations to the course have been made in order to attract the highest calibre to take on the unique race and course of the Grand National. This seems to have worked, as within these eight horses remaining, there is a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Hennesey Gold Cup winner, Arkle winner and many more who have won races at the highest level.

Age;

Eight horses remain, so we need to narrow it down even further to find out who is worthy to carry the cash.

The last nine winners have all been aged 9-11, so this means we can say goodbye to three more, in the shape of the 13-y-o veteran Tidal Bay, as-well as the Hennessey Gold Cup one-two, Triolo D’Alene (7-y-o) and Rocky Creek (8-y-o) who fall out of the desired age bracket.

Chase  Form;

Eleven of the last twelve Grand National winners had only managed to win a maximum of one chase in their entire season before their Aintree success, with eight of these failing to land a chase at all before the big one.

This seems like an extremely relevant trend, however, rather surprisingly, doesn’t rule any of the final five out, as they have all failed to win more than one chase this season.

Don’t be too fresh;

Every winner of the race over the past 23 years has had their final prep-run within 55 days of lining up at Aintree. This rules out another member of our quintet, and turns it into dynamic quartet, with Walkon missing out by the shortest of margins, as it will have been 56 days since Alan King’s 9-y-o was last seen on the track.

So we are left with our final four, Long Run, Hunt Ball, Quito De La Roque and Colbert Station.

No fallers;

In a race such as the Grand National, you will need a steady jumper who has proved in recent runs he is able to jump a fence prominently. So ideally, there will be no ‘F’ creeping into the last five runs.

This rules out Quito De La Roque, who was a faller at Gowran in October, and Colbert Station, who was a faller at Leopardstown on his latest run, as-well as in the Grand National last year, when well-fancied.

These pair can be scratched off the list, and it leaves us with two interesting contenders, who are at opposite ends of the market.

The pair who fit the trends;

The first horse, who fits all the trends, is former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Long Run, who looks to have a great chance when lining up at Aintree.

He possesses plenty of class, and the recent alterations will play right to his strengths, with less emphasis on precision jumping, and more on his strong-travelling and tactical speed in his races. He looks to be a solid selection, and could well carry on the recent trends.

If he doesn’t, then it will be up to Hunt Ball to keep up the tradition of recent years, and the former Cheltenham and Aintree festival winner will be looking to outrun his big odds.

15243 Grand National Runners 2014 2. Long Run, 10/1 with Ladbrokes bet  12/1 with William Hill, bet 12/1 with Betfred, bet

208237 Grand National Runners 2014 3.  Hunt Ball 50/1 with Ladbrokes bet 50/1 with William Hill, bet 66/1 with Betfred, bet

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